Evo Morales is currently on track to become Bolivia’s longest-serving leader since the country gained independence in 1825. This unprecedented feat is telling of the lack of stability that has defined the country’s political landscape for almost two centuries. Considering this tendency toward political flux, it is very difficult to predict the direction the country will take in 10 to 20 years, but I have asked two political minds what they think.

In the past 20 years, Bolivia has seen seven presidents leading the country, a series of protests that rocked the political landscape, and the rise and fall of many political parties, some of whose members are now in exile. Just 11 years ago, Gonzalo “Goni” Sánchez de Lozada was forced to resign from the presidency and flee the country after dozens of people were killed in what is known as the ‘Gas War’. So when Evo Morales, an indigenous coca farmer, gained the presidency in 2006, no one could have imagined how much Bolivia would change in just a few years.

According to Ana María Solares, economist and specialist in commerce and international negotiations at her own enterprise Calidad Total, ‘the country has changed’, with a more empowered lower and middle indigenous class emerging thanks to the policies introduced by MAS (Movimiento al Socialismo—Movement Toward Socialism) and setting itself as one of the pillars of Bolivian society. This class is here to stay, and since it owes its political clout in part to Morales’s rise to power, it is likely that the current president will see widespread support for many years to come.

Back in 2006 and in the run-up to his election, Evo Morales presented himself as a staunch defender of the right to grow coca, the importance of agriculture, and the preservation of Madre Tierra. Today, leading into 2014 election, the discourse has changed to focus on major development projects for the country, such as the the reactivation of the Karachipampa smelter plant, the enormous project of bringing natural gas to Bolivian homes, and the more controversial plans like the TIPNIS highway and the discussion over the possibility of a nuclear power plant. 'But,' said Solares, ‘the defense of Mother Nature is just political discourse.’ According to her, Morales’s commitment to the environmental is just a façade.

Marcelo Arequipa, a political scientist at the Social Investigations Center of the Vice Presidency, said that Bolivia will continue to industrialize and develop, and as long as the populace sees results, they will support whoever is leading the most productive developmentalist agenda. “Above all, MAS has always been a party that is very involved with unions”, he added. He says that Morales is unable to escape globalization, and his government has been a very active solicitor of foreign investment in the country. Arequipa said that Bolivians don’t give much importance to the political ideology of the country and that they are very pragmatic regarding politics. What’s likely, according to Arequipa, is that Bolivians will continue voting for whichever party continues the development of the country, whether that means supporting a socialist or a liberal ideology.

Looking to the future, it may be hard for any opposition parties to gain the needed support because of that pragmatism that permeates Bolivian society. So if Bolivians aren’t fixated on ideology, then why is the opposition so intent on evicting MAS from power and moving away from its professed socialist agenda? Arequipa said that the current opposition used to be the richer elite prior to Morales’ rise to power. They were businessmen that were hurt by the government’s intense dedication to the lower and middle class, and they would like the tide to turn once again to their favor.

But can the opposition unite? Solares said this is unlikely because of the current behavior of opposition leaders. ‘Democracy is more viable when there is a strong opposition . . . but politicians in general are just too egocentric.’ Solares said that politicians have blocked themselves out of anything other than their internal, personal political agendas, which is not a viable way to govern.

Is there a possibility that the environmentalist Bolivian Green Party could rise to the fore? Despite strong opposition against the TIPNIS highway project that cuts across protected indigenous lands, the Green Party has found scant support. Arequipa attributed this to the major difficulty of getting citizens to become concerned about the environment. ‘The only way to change that is to make it a state policy’, he said. Solares added that on the international stage, Bolivia has taken a very environmentalist stance. However, within the country, not much has been accomplished regarding environmental protection, and it will likely remain that way for some time to come.

After analyzing the possible future of the Bolivian political landscape, Marcelo Arequipa takes some time to share his ideal vision of the country’s government 20 years from now: ‘A female president leading a pluralist government’ would be a dream come true, he said. Will that dream materialize? Only time will tell.

Illustration: Oscar Zalles

Bolivian Express explores how La Paz's city government must adapt to cope with rocketing levels of car ownership

The streets of La Paz--especially during gridlocked rush hours--are hardly the most welcoming of places for pedestrians. In the mad crush of cars, taxis, minibuses, micros, motorbikes and now Puma Katari buses, making it alive to the next plaza can feel like a grand achievement. At times, you must dodge vehicles of all kinds and sizes in order to reach this rare collection of pedestrian safe zones.

The number of registered vehicles in Bolivia almost doubled in the span of only 6 years, going from 418,000 in 2002 to 821,000 in 2008. It is estimated that over 300,000 of these vehicles can be found in the relatively small, though extraordinarily dense urban area of La Paz. Both of these figures, however, overlook the fleet of unregistered vehicles in the country, with a large number of doctored documents allowing for these. The government of La Paz predicts that in 5 years there will not be enough physical room for all the cars to move through the city.

But the practical issues of congestion are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the problems caused by traffic. Not only do many people in La Paz--especially alteños--face a daily commute of over 4 hours, but 3 people die each week in the city due to traffic accidents. This figure presents a 240% increase in traffic-related deaths and injuries since 2000. Furthermore, there is also increasing concern in the city over the air pollution caused by traffic. La Paz, along with Santa Cruz and Cochabamba, holds some of the highest nitrogen dioxide levels in South America, according to a 2012 report by the Clean Air Institute.

In order to understand why car ownership has grown at such a fast pace here, it is important to examine what owning a car means to the average Bolivian in La Paz. For some, a car is absolutely necessary to their job. Some people, like Edwin Marquez, a 41-year-old Bolivian, have always lived in La Paz but work in a rural area. Other residents believe cars have gone from being a desired luxury to being perhaps too easily accessible.

Orlando, an 8-year-resident of La Paz, says that 'in the past [a car] meant a large investment...it changed your life'. Today, he says, it is not uncommon to see 3 or even 4 cars per family, due to the growing availability of cheaper, used Japanese models.

That said, owning a car in Bolivia may still say a lot about a person’s status--much like in the vast majority of developed and developing countries in the world. One employee at a car dealership in La Paz told BX that owning a car in the city is still a common aspiration; 'It’s about having status. Above everything else it’s an accomplishment, something you’ve conquered'.

In order to combat the rising levels of pollution and congestion caused by the growing number of vehicles on the streets, Bolivian President Evo Morales introduced a ban in 2008 on the importation of all cars older than 5 years. The goal was to limit the speed at which older Japanese models were entering the country. In Japan, owning an older car has become increasingly expensive due to strict environmental regulations. People tend to update their models fairly frequently, which is why a huge market developed in Bolivia for these cheap second-hand models.

But the import ban was not entirely successful. After 2008, cars continued to enter Bolivia under the guise of false documentation. The attempts to seize these contraband vehicles were also largely unfruitful and even led to violent conflict. In 2012, the chuteros (who are responsible for the illegal entry and modification of the cars) confronted the military in Challapata when police attempted to seize their vehicles.

Back in La Paz, road users protest for entirely different reasons in a city where traffic remains an intractable issue. Only two weeks ago, bus drivers blocked the streets of the Zona Sur to protest against la semaforización, a policy that introduced over 60 new traffic lights to the area. Julián Manzaneda, leader of the bus driver's union, told the news outlet Red Uno that the Mayor's office in La Paz fails to acknowledge the demands of his sector. Since the traffic lights are aimed at benefiting the city’s pedestrians, Manzaneda suggests that perhaps the City should look into ‘our need for more walkways' instead.

For now, according to Alvaro Mérida--an official in the department of mobility at the Mayor’s office--the priority in La Paz is 'to reduce the number of private journeys' across the city and encourage the use of public transport. One scheme already in place to achieve this goal is the road space rationing program implemented within the bounds of central La Paz. This program limits vehicle access to the city centre on particular days of the week, according to the vehicle’s license plate. In the near future, the Mayor’s office plans to tackle parking with a plan that 'will involve the construction of parking spaces at key points in the city'.

Bolivians remain sceptical, though, arguing that the City will be unable to make any truly effective changes without facing entirely reversing public backlash. The challenge for future leaders, it seems, will be to build consensus around the need for addressing these issues, harmonizing voices and interests that are as dissonant and diverse as they look when they’re sharing the streets of the city.

As consumption increases with the growing population, will waste be lining the streets in 20 years time? Where will all the rubbish go?

Trash, litter, rubbish, garbage, waste, refuse, junk, detritus: whatever word you use to describe the excess products of human consumption, it never sounds pleasant. When it is not immediately evident on the streets, it is hidden in a pit miles away from densely populated areas. Most people would prefer to live as far away from trash as possible, however, some individuals are converting trash into one of the unique selling points of their businesses.

According to Bolivia’s National Institute of Statistics, in 2012 La Paz produced 181,267 tonnes of waste, or approximately the combined weight of 1,000 average-sized blue whales. The World Bank’s most recent report on solid waste management in Bolivia estimates that the average citizen in the country generates 0.33kg of waste per day. This figure is dwarfed by that of the United Kingdom, where people produce 1.79kg of waste on a daily basis; and by that of the United States, where the figure jumps to 2.8kg daily.

No se hace reciclaje. (There is no recycling.)

Unlike in the UK and USA, where the annual generation of waste will probably decrease in the near future, Bolivia’s waste production is expected to increase by more than 50% by 2025. In La Paz alone, the growing population signals a future growth in consumption. Recently, a small-scale recycling plant opened in the city that separates plastic and sends it to Plastimadera, a firm that uses the waste to make school furniture. But without a larger-scale culture of recycling, or a structural method of separating rubbish implemented by the local government, La Paz seems headed for an all too common urban nightmare, that of the junkyard dystopia.

But hope is not lost, say the handful of paceños who are busy creating avant-garde restaurants, bars, and even community gardens with objects normally considered to be trash.They say the junk-laden nightmare does not have to become a reality.

Carola Ibañez and Katya Vergara are two of those driven and innovative people. Together, they founded Ciclick, a new organic restaurant situated in Sopocachi. ‘The restaurant is called Ciclick because it refers to a cycle – a cycle of eating good quality food, of visiting the restaurant and of using recycled materials in every feature of our interior design,’ Carola said from her chair, fashioned out of recycled wood from a building site.

In the restaurant space, light floods the room from the roof filtered by 70 reused glass bottles. The bar top is made from the original metal doors of the hall in which the restaurant currently operates. The tables are fitted with wheels and metal spokes from old bicycles; hanging lamps are made out of discarded hard drives; the interior is more Shoreditch-chic than recycled rubbish. It truly is art with a utilitarian use.

Even though Ciclick has been in business for only two months, every object in the restaurant has a long story behind it. The owners believe that must be one of the reasons why people are drawn to their restaurant. The public’s reaction has been positive and Carola assures me that using recycled art is a growing trend in restaurants and cafés throughout the city. One of the pioneer venues in this movement was the late night bar Diesel, which has been championing raw, recycled interior design for 14 years.

Other recycling initiatives in the city have an entirely different focus. Maria Teresa Nogales and Andrea Ibañez Pantoja lead Fundación Alternativas, a community-based organization aimed at ensuring food security in the city. The foundation cleans up the rubbish from urban areas to make way for community farms. Its members also promote separating glass and plastic from the general waste for recycling purposes.

María and Andres dream of a better and cleaner future for La Paz. The image they evoke of that future place is a city of gardens. Green spaces where communities can grow their own food, recycle and take care of their rubbish. The way they see it, education and better infrastructure for classifying the city’s rubbish could change the landscape dramatically. ‘La Paz is a city of entrepreneurs,’ María says. She and her partner are hopeful about the future.

The leaders of Fundación Alternativas are not alone in thinking of a garden. The landfill site of Alpacoma, which is the final resting point of all of the waste generated in La Paz, was recently renamed ‘El Nuevo Jardín de Alpacoma.’ But this ‘new garden’ is no garden at all. At least not yet. At 15km away from the nearest urban settlement, Alpacoma is a regular landfill site and a park in the making.

In 20 years, when the Alpacoma site reaches its maximum capacity, the authorities plan to cover it over and turn it into a public garden. The Council of the German city Bonn, which is working in tandem with the local government of La Paz, sent a team to this year inspect the site and concluded that the project complies with international environmental regulations. This is definitely a positive development. Taking into account the strong anti-littering campaign currently active in La Paz, one can be driven to feel overly optimistic about the future of waste management in Bolivia.

But is it enough to push all the waste of a city under the carpet of a garden? What happens after the garden is finished? It seems that a sustainable solution for waste management in La Paz must also include a strategy to reduce the amount of disposable waste generated in the city. Recycling initiatives like the ones currently emerging in La Paz could go a long way to achieve this objective.